Are you reading this ?

[sartaj]

There are plenty of people who seem to check out the bidding forum pages and other items in the main public forum domain.

Why dont you share your opinion with us ? About this hand in the bidding forum or that issue ............ ??

The more that participate, the merrier :)

[ish]

Good idea Sartaj. Lets get this party started!!

[DavidStern]

Re December hand whether to transfer over 1NT or play there I had run this anslysis without seeing your article first.

Using 2000 hands with
sx 109754
hx AJ5
dx 64
cx 874
opposite 15-17 Balanced

Average Score Not Vul Vul
Playing Spades Not Vul 64.545 Vul 43.745
Playing NT Not Vul 26.315 Vul -7.085
IMPS Better in sx Not Vul 1 Vul 2

Average Number of Tricks in Spades 7.963 (closer to making on balance) Makes 67.25% of the time
Average Number of Tricks in NT 6.659 Makes 55.45% of the time

Using 2000 hands same hand
sx 109754
hx AJ5
dx 64
cx 874
opposite 12-14 Balanced

Average Score
Playing Spades Not Vul -24.70 Vul -82.37
Playing NT Not Vul -79.33 Vul -171.33
IMPS Better in sx Not Vul 2 Vul almost 3

Average Number of Tricks in Spades 6.90 (closer to making on balance) Makes 28.4% of the time
Average Number of Tricks in NT 5.18 Makes 13.3% of the time

Caveats:
Asssumes double dummy play
Ignores lucky or unlucky opening leads
Ignores getting too high when partner superaccepts
Ignores possibilities of one contract attracting opposition action versus another

On balance however I think this points towards transferring.

Anybody wanting any analysis work done please let me know - Cheers D

[mrdct]

Can you model the super-accept scenario on the basis that whenever there is a 9-card spade fit you will be playing in 3S?

[DavidStern]

Hi Dave

Using 1000 hands with
sx 109754
hx AJ5
dx 64
cx 874
opposite 12-14 Balanced with 4 card spade support and always super-accepts

Average Score
Playing Spades Not Vul -48.6 Vul -120.4
Playing NT Not Vul -74.9 Vul -169.0
IMPS Better in Not Vul 1 Vul 2

Make 9+ tricks in sx's 16% of the time
Average Number of tricks in spades 7.6
Make 7+ tricks in NT 19% of the time
Average Number of tricks in NT 5.18
------------------------------------------------------------------
Using 1000 hands with
sx 109754
hx AJ5
dx 64
cx 874
opposite 15-17 Balanced with 4 card spade support and always super-accepts

Average Score
Playing Spades Not Vul 53.4 Vul 24.3
Playing NT Not Vul 35.2 Vul 2.8
IMPS Better in Not Vul almost 1 Vul 1

Make 9+ tricks in sx's 55%
Average Number of tricks in spades 8.6
Make 7+ tricks in NT 61%
Average Number of tricks in NT 6.8

[martinreid]

David, I'm really surprised at the variance between your samples:

Sample 1a - 2000 hands vs 15-17 NT
Average Number of Tricks in Spades 7.963
Average Number of Tricks in NT 6.659

Sample 2a - 1000 hands vs 15-17 NT
Average Number of tricks in spades 8.6
Average Number of tricks in NT 6.8

Sample 1b - 2000 hands vs 12-14 NT
Average Number of Tricks in Spades 6.90
Average Number of Tricks in NT 5.18

Sample 2b - 1000 hands vs 12-14 NT
Average Number of tricks in spades 7.6
Average Number of tricks in NT 5.18

Any thoughts or explanation?

Martin Reid

[DavidStern]

Hi Martin not sure I understand your concern
In terms of your 8.6 and 7.6 highlighted this simply refelcts the additional trick offered by the 15-17 over 12-14.
Am I missing something
D

[mrdct]

The difference is presumably because in Samples 1a and 1b the 1NT opener is "balanced" whereas in Samples 2a and 2b the 1NT opener is balanced and has a 4-card Spade suit so it naturally follows that playing in Spades will need to make more tricks.

Back to my query about whether you should still transfer to Spades if you have super-accepts in your bidding system, you need to know the frequency of the 1NT opener holding a 4 or 5 card Spade suit to reach a conclusion because when you do hit a super-accept you are going to play in 3S instead of 1NT where, on average, 1NT has slightly better prospects.

[DavidStern]

Dave I disagree with your statement

when you do hit a super-accept you are going to play in 3S instead of 1NT where, on average, 1NT has slightly better prospects

Overall your score will be better playing in spades
Weak 1NT
Average Score
Playing Spades Not Vul -48.6 Vul -120.4
Playing NT Not Vul -74.9 Vul -169.0
IMPS Better in Not Vul 1 Vul 2

Average Score
Playing Spades Not Vul 53.4 Vul 24.3
Playing NT Not Vul 35.2 Vul 2.8
IMPS Better in Not Vul almost 1 Vul 1

So even getting too high is a better scoring prospect
D