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Ralph Parker
15-06-07, 09:47 AM
I was reading the QBA bulletin and it was suggested that with
AJ104 opposite

765
play small to the 10 when this looses return to hand and play small to the jack
the second finess has a 75% chance of winning(just split honours yawn so what) but it felt wrong to me since KQ onside has been eliminated I think the second finess is only 50% so I asked some smarties and was told its more but not 75% possibly 66% based on restricted choice considerations anyone care to comment on this?
PGosney
15-06-07, 02:11 PM
67% sounds about right, before any cards get played there are 4 cases, KQ onside, KQ offside, K onside Q off and Q onside K off, all equally likely (approximately, split honours is slightly more likely 1% I think). After the first round finesse loses the first case cannot exist so there are 3 cases left, so its roughly 2/3 that the second finesse will work. I'll say 68% :p
Ralph Parker
15-06-07, 04:58 PM
Thanks paul think I'll end up in a going nuts you agree with PH seems to me there are 4 cards missing one is the king or queen they can be 4 3 2 1 0 on either side somehow the left hand combinations attract an honour by some sort of bias I seem to be in minority again
PGosney
15-06-07, 06:03 PM
As Peter told me this afternoon its different if you have lead the second time and they have followed small on your left since they can no longer have honour doubleton, 2/3 is the chance before you lead the second time.
khokan
16-06-07, 06:11 AM
I'd reckon that restricted choice is an issue here in calculating the odds of the second finesse winning ie this is different to the situation where you hold xxx opposite AQ10x and the finesse of the ten loses to the jack.
Ralph Parker
16-06-07, 06:34 AM
It seems the a priori position can not be ignored when facing this new problem so when faced with a choice I know what to do. I already considered the card played on my left scenario and felt it changed things of course you have committed yourself by now. I dont suppose I will live long enough for this info to be useful but I find it interesting

Gee Whizz Khokan now I have to think about that